2023 Picks and stuff

[truthstorm]

Record: 0-0

Team(s)/line/record for the play/W %.
All based on my numbers and plays charted starting in Dec 2023

Sam/W Car Un (27-16, 62%)
(Waiting to buy this one, it's rising. Opened 157'/158; 159' is the common # now, a few 160 starting to show up; I'll use 159' if the common # doesn't go higher at more houses.)

Miz St/Ind St Ov 154 (12-9, 57%)*

Penn St +6 (15-4, 78%)


*If Mizz St play wins, I bank it. If it loses, I might add Iowa St/BYU Ov (12-9, 57%) to my card.
Will add a reply with the # I get IF I buy it.

 

[truthstorm]

Why is there a little bell icon next to replies?

 

[teeter]

Nice work

 

[teeter]

Anything cookin’ tonight?

 

[truthstorm]

Teeter, thanks.
I 'cap the games every day but don't bet every day.
I pick my spots, jump in, jump out. So most nights, no I don't have anything cooking.
And thanks for the upvote, Mudcat.

Recap: 2-0
Record: 2-0

Got a W with the Samford under spot and a SU winner with Penn St in the Wrong Dog spot.
Pushed with Ind St over.
Screwed up on the BYU over spot. I had it as a 7pm tip off. Just after 6pm I went to check my other plays and make a decision as to playing BYU over or not, saw the BYU game had just started. With no decision to be made I don't know if I would have played it or not; missed a W.

Got a few today, LaSalle, N Ill, and Belmont, all in the Wrong Dog spot.
Overall it's just 45-39, but when it's a Hm Dog, like Penn St was last time I posted, it's very strong.
The LaSalle spot also hits in a subcategory of the Dog play based on point differential, has a record of 9-6.

I took LaSalle +8'.
May add N Ill later.

 

[indiana]

T. storm....BOL with your play buddy....indy

 

[truthstorm]

LaSalle down by 12 right now, could go either way.
Adding North Ill +5' odds/percentage play in case LaSalle goes down.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 0-2
Record: 2-2

I have a few games circled for today, and two picks for the NFL tomorrow.

Basketball

Mia Oh +8.
This is the same situational spot I lost on last time I was in here.
It's 2-0 since then and I didn't bet either one. It's still hitting at a nice percentage overall for the season so I'm jumping back on it.
Three teams qualify today, Louisville, Mia Oh, and Fla St.
I like the Miami Oh spot the best but might be prejudiced 'cuz I don't like the Zips, they cost me an important win in a contest years ago (I'm Sicilian, we tend to hold grudges.)

Football

I'm more of a college guy than NFL, only shared one pick here this year, got a W with it. I made two early plays this week, using the penalty prop in both games. (I like over/under props on penalties because you have action on every play.)

Here's my look at both games:

KC/Bal Ov 11', -120

The number is tight, and I like to avoid Overs on KC games because Andy runs a disciplined squad who usually put up low numbers. But with the extra pressure and hype on this game I'm looking for 1-2 more illegal motion penalties and/or offensive holding calls than usual (LY's Conference Championship games saw 15 total penalties in SF/Phil and 13 in Cin/KC, both higher than this year's numbers.)

The 11' is equal to the sum of the avg penalties per game for both teams, no edge there.

The ref for this game is Smith and his crew.
Last time these guys saw Bal they tagged them with 6 penalties in a game that saw 11 total.
Last time they saw KC they tagged them with 7, in a game that saw 14 total penalties.
That 'Smith" avg (Bal 6, KC 7) gets a W with the 11' in this one.

Smith crew avg penalties per game this season: 12, again a hook above the # in this game.

LY in the Conf. Champ game KC had only 4 penalties, which doesn't help my case here.
But that was in the friendly confines of Arrowhead. Which leads me to my fav stat:
Guess which team's stadium saw the most delay of game and false start penalties by the visiting team this year?
Yup - the Ravens.
This adds fuel to my thinking that in the Conf Champ atmosphere I'll get that 1-2 more illegal motion/holding penalties than usual.

Side note - the over 11' in this game is a good bet to make for the Swiftie Conspiracy Theorists. Not that I buy into it but the Swifties say the NFL wants KC in the Super Bowl for the ratings. Especially after they saw what happened in Buffalo. To make that happen, the refs are going to have to make some bad calls against the Ravens and call a few extra penalties on them. Am I using this as one of the stats/reasons helping me decide to take the over here? Of course not. But I thought I'd add it for a laugh and for those people who are into that sort of thing.)


Det/SF -Ov 10', -120

I like this spot even more than KC/Bal.
Det avg pen per game: 5.5
SF avg pen per gm: 5.9

A conference final with a number that's a full pt higher than their season averages? I'll bite.

In their two postseason games Det performed above avg, with just 3 vs TB and 5 vs LAR.
That's a combined 8, avg of 4, which is less than the # I need from them this week.
But those were home games.
Det avg pen @ Hm: 5; Rd: 8
That's an avg of 3 more when facing Rd atmosphere, which can only be magnified in a conference championship game.
So, I like my odds that Det will get to the number I need.

SF averages 5' pen per gm @ Hm.
At Hm against GB last week the Niners got tagged for 6 penalties. If I can get a similar number to that in this game - which shouldn't be difficult since 6 is their season avg - I can get the number I need from them to reach the total of 11 I need.

Det/SF has Blakeman's crew, who avg'd 11 penalties per game this season, just what I need in this one.
His Det game had 9 and his SF game had 13; avg 11, again, the same number I need here.

Final stat - LY in the Championship SF had 11 penalties. ELEVEN!
Yes, that was on the Rd, but the RD disdvantage for a team is not an avg of 5 penalties, and even if you removed 5 from that # they still would have 6, which is all I need from them this week.

Good luck and have fun with your plays this weekend.

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-2

Last time in, Jan 27, "Wronged Dog" Mia, +8, wins SU.
(Missed with the penalty props in football but got it back in the S Bowl. Love that prop.)

Wish I had stronger plays as I jump back in today.
I don't have any 60% or > spots active but I have two Wronged Dogs hitting at a W rate of 59% - B Green and TCU.

TCU has been in this Wrong Dog play twice and are 1-1.
Tex Tech was a Wrong Fav once, played one of my WD's, and my spot lost as T Tech covered as the Fav.

First time for B Green and C Mich in this spot.

Not sure about the BG spot but I did play TCU.
Took them from +5' to +8' -115.
Just kidding!
No phony lines or fake juice here.
This thread is altruism (if scores go as expected.)
Not egotism.
Or soliciting.

One or two houses have TCU +6 but +5' is the common number, a # that is available to all posters/bettors so . . .
TCU +5'

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-2

Review: TCU just misses winning SU, lost by a pt. But at +5' it was enough to get a W with a team the books disrespected and "Done Wrong" by making 'em the Dog.

I have a few Wrong Dogs circled today but none I want to recommend.
I did make a play for tonight though, I took Seattle.
BIG Seahawk fan, which obviously has absolutely nuttin' to do with this pick. But they do qualify as a play with my highest W % .

Sea -6

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 5-2

Last time in got a W as Seattle wins by > 3X the spread.

Got two today in that same situational spot.

Also have a rare under play for two games. Everyday I run every single game through my formulas but hardly ever get one that qualifies as an under. I get a lot of plays that qualify as overs but the record is hovering around .500 which makes it worthless, can't bet on or fade.

GW/St L Un 164
'Bama/Kentucky Un 175'
Ok St -1'
Tarleton (waiting to buy this one, 2 hours left before tip off and the opening -7 is dropping, -6 and -5' right now at most houses, might get the hook off by waiting a little longer. Grab the 5' if it starts to move back the other way.)

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-3
Record: 6-5

WAY off on both totals last time in so I did a lot of work over the last week on my over-under spots. Hope to add a few later today.

Two plays so far, got to head out, no time for a write-up.

Baylor -4'
G Mason -3

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 7-6

Split last time in.
Made a few bets today.
Hate to do it because they're coming off two straight blowouts (though vs top quality opponents) but one of my situational spots says the Kids in the Hall have a 78% chance of covering tonight. The Spiders from Richmond (not Mars) are in the same spot. The 'Canes miss qualifying by a hook, may add them later despite my rule that says "It either qualifies as a play or it doesn't - don't play games that almost fit."
SH -1
Rich -5'

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 2-0
Record: 9-6

From last post: "The 'Canes miss qualifying by a hook, may add them later despite my rule that says " "It either qualifies as a play or it doesn't - don't play games that almost fit."

Without rules there is anarchy. Stayed with my better judgment and followed my rule, didn't add the Canes as a play, and ... they got their ass kicked.
Rules are there for a reason.

I have a few games today that qualify in the same situational spot as Seton Hall and Richmond were in on Wednesday. I bought two of them.

Also, my #'s say E Tenn has a 64% chance to cover as a dog in this spot.
Three plays now, may add something later.

E Tenn +6'
Ab Christian -2'
E Car -1'

 

[enfuegomiami]

loving E Tenne st. good luck also loving ark ST

 

[truthstorm]

Nice hit on Ark State, EnFuego, absolutely crushed.

Recap: 1-2
Record: 10-8

Yesterday morning I did my 'capping, made my pics, made my bets, shared them here. Went out to run some errands and saw my car door was not fully closed. I don't normally lock it, nice neighborhood, no crime and I don't keep anything valuable in it. Opened the door and saw somebody was in my car the night before, glove compartment stuff all over the floor etc.

And my first thought was, "Go buy off your bets, lose the juice and post up advising the same."

I'm a firm believer in signs, rhythms, a flow-to-life, karma, etc. If you get laid off, go home and find a Dear John letter from your wife, and she took the dog, it's probably not a good day to bet the Seahawks are going to cover the spread vs the 49ers.
Or anyone beating anyone.

But I didn't buy off the bets and went 1-2.
So I remain a firm believer in signs, rhythms, etc.

ANYWAY...

Won my early game yesterday, only needed a split from two games that qualified for one of my strongest percentage plays (84%) and I couldn't get it, lost to both.

I don't have any of those plays today but I got a couple with a decent W percentage. Gonna see if yesterday's bad mojo has worn off.

Ohio St -1' (in what world does Rutgers beat Ohio State? Hopefully not this one. A barely profitable spot at 54% but I'm trying it.)

Maryland -1 (a 64% chance to cover by my charts)

 

[truthstorm]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 11-9

And that's where the reg season ends here.
No damage done - always the first goal since 99% of bettors lose, (except on internet forums where almost everybody "wins".)
Small profit gained - second goal achieved.

I like a nice cheater-free neighborhood, and the forum is very clean these days* so I'll try to help/contribute more plays for the tournaments.

Important reminder - WHAT WORKED DURING THE REGULAR SEASON MAY NOT WORK IN POST SEASON PLAY!
(pardon the shouting, but it is an important point for those who 'cap their own games.)
I have a couple strong scenarios that I developed over the regular season. Since home-away was not a factor in some, they will, hopefully, bring in a few units in the post season on neutral courts.

Got a few plays today in a spot that was 28-15, 65%, reg season (I didn't play them all, jumped on late after the W's started piling up.)
Three teams qualify: St Joe's, Wash and Temple.

St Joe's already started and is kickin' G Mason ass, while I'm kickin' my own ass because I missed the play when I did my morning 'capping.
I caught it while doing a double check, TOO LATE, the game had already tipped off. F me.

I bought the other two, though I'm feeling bad mojo 'cuz I missed out on the early one (and probably just increased the jinx factor by saying that out loud.)
For a guy that believes in math and numbers I have too many stupidsuperstitions when it comes to sports betting.

Tournament play: 0-0

Wash +3'
Temple +2


*It seems another stealth solicitor/tout-wannabe (popular only because many don't do the record math, including juice, to see the real profit/loss) is gone (for now.)
Same scenario as always:
1 - gets lucky and strings together a few wins; boasts about his record in every post
2 - the idolatry (from inexperienced posters) begins
3 - the losses start to pile up as regression towards the mean comes into play
4 - the cheating on the record begins, just a game or two here and there
5 - the losing continues, the lines get faker and the record cheating increases to 2-3 games each day
6 - the record magically disappears, no longer given in new posts
7 - the losing reaches the point where all early profits (and more) are lost
8 - the poster disappears (ya can't troll for sucker fish when ya can't win)

New guys - you HAVE to be aware of these guys.
Don't get caught up in hype.
Do your due diligence, don't tail blindly.

Good luck to all during this post season...

 

[truthstorm]

Reg Season: 11-9
Tournament Play
Recap: 1-1
Record: 1-1

Got a spot as Temple wins SU as a small dog, Wash + 3' hung tough until the end, tied at the three minute mark, then they fouled LaBroni on a 3 pt'er, he hit all 3 FT's, and the Huskies never recovered.

I have one play in the same spot as yesterday's two plays: Ark
Also have a 2-9 spot that says take Col St.

Ark +6
Nev -2'

 

[pigskinpete]

Confused, you state take Col St, but have Nevada -2’?…I think CSU has the best player on the floor in Stevens, but they sorta limped to the finish line…Nevada is going to get in regardless, I think…tough call.

 

[truthstorm]

"You state take Col St, but have Nevada -2’?"

Sorry about the confusion.
To clarify:
I didn't state "Take Colorado."
I wrote: "Also have a 2-9 spot that says take Col St."
That particular spot says take Col St. ("Spot" being one of the 7-8 situational plays I track and chart and use to decide which games to buy.)
That spot/play is 2-9.
Hence (hence??!!) Nev -2'

Thanks for stopping by and good luck to you whichever way you play that game and the rest of your plays today.